How will The Quartet respond to the Fatah-Hamas deal?

This essay was written by Hadar Sela, and published at The Propagandist.

The manner in which the world, and in particular the Quartet, responds to the emerging Hamas-Fatah reconciliation will be of prime importance in dictating whether the Middle East will move within the next few months from a situation of no peace to one of all-out war.

If Hamas is allowed by the international community to integrate into the Palestinian Authority without being made to renounce its armed campaigns and without being obliged to recognise Israel’s existence, the already terminally ill peace process will come to a very rapid demise.  Not only will Israel not negotiate with a Palestinian government which contains terrorist elements, but the terms of the Roadmap, which up to now have formed the foundations of negotiations, will become devoid of any further relevance.

That, of course, would suit Hamas perfectly; it has done all in its power to scupper the peace process for many years and by its very definition rejects all negotiations intended to lead to a two-state solution. However, it also suits Fatah which, despite dodging the negotiating table with considerable alacrity since negotiations resumed last autumn, received a serious blow to its already bruised credibility on the Palestinian street with the release of the leaked ‘Palestine Papers’ and is increasingly threatened by internal discord.

If Fatah ever really did intend the peace negotiations to be more than lip-service to its cheque-writing patrons in the international community (and the rejection of the 2008 Olmert offer would suggest very strongly that it had no such intentions), its weakness means that it is currently unable to pursue anything other than the rejectionist stance as represented not only by Hamas, but by a considerable proportion of the Palestinian elite and in particular, those living outside the region.

Read the rest of the essay, here.

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6 replies »

  1. Seems to be a ‘plonter’ by the Palestinian Authority.

    Very common in the dysfunctional world, whether pseudo democracies or autocracies, it seems preferable to give in to ‘public’ pressure rather than do the obvious/logical.

    It will be interesting to see over the next few months how Abbas wriggles when asked by donor countries, how he sees a terrorist organisation as conducive to any peace negotiations especially as Hamas refuses to change its Charter.

    Interesting that Hamas has sort of left Syria to take up residence in Cairo. Doesn’t bode well for the new regimes in Cairo in terms of relations with the United States that bankrolls Egypt.

    The Middle East is in flux and the only stable country is Israel. I doubt that this is lost on European and American politicians. Or politicians all over the world for that matter. Israel somehow comes through shining to all but the loony left and their Islamist allies.

    So it boils down to two relevant questions. How will the decision to incorporate Hamas into the PA affect the Palestinians intention of asking the UN to recognise a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders and how will the ‘donor’ countries relate to Hamas’s incorporation?

    In other words, are they going to cease to bankroll the PA?

  2. No matter what the Arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza do, the international community will support them all the way.

    We are living in a hypocritical world. Do not expect the Quartet to react accordingly to this new merger between 2 terrorist groups: Hamas & Fatah.

    The Arabs have violated every UN resolution since the inception of the UN. Why would you expect anything from this useless organization?

    These same players (Quartet) cannot agree how to confront the butcher from Damascus and other autocracies (Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Iran, Sudan, Eritrea, Iraq & Afghanistan) in the ME, why should they do anything right about the conflict here in Israel?

    Based on pass performance of the international community towards the Jews and Israel, I recommend that we prepare ourselves for another eruption of hostilities in the near future.

  3. The PA had been getting high marks from world bodies for cleaning up their corruption which showed itself by the fact that world benevolence had for the first time been used for the good of the people. New buildings have sprung up and there is a demand for higher-priced goods, showing that the money has been spread around and is not lying in fat bank-balances as in the past.

    A good deal of the goodwill of the countries recommending that the PA should declare must be based on these reports.

    However, one of the first demands of Hamas was that the PA should fire the architect of all this financial good management, Fayyad who was appointed with the approval if not the insistence of the USA, and this was done post-haste. It seems that Abbas had just been waiting for this opportunity.

    Look forward to more hungry Palestinians and more derelict buildings in the future.

  4. Israel has just withheld tax transfers to the PA to the tune of $90 million per month in response to the alliance of the PA with Hamas, who refuse to negotiate or recognise Israel’s right to exist. Good move

    At last Bibi’s cojones have become a little larger.

    Let us see if the cash strapped EU has the same cojones to fund the PA short fall, not withstanding that half of the European funding is recycled through European bank accounts where it will line the pockets of Fatah officials, with fat commissions for the banks themselves.

    Since the tax refunds finance 75% of the PA budget maybe the Palestinians will focus on how dependent they are on the largesse of Israel.

    One would have thought that it would have been crystal clear to the Pals by now that Israel really does not need them. The Pals however, will continue their march along the path of self destruction, the final act being played out in September when they will announce, with the support of the GA at the UN, their virtual state of Palestine.

    At this point Israel will annex all the land that it requires in Judea and Sameria for future Jewish sustainability and security, containing as few Arabs as possible.

    European boycott? No chance – The Arab world will be tearing itself to pieces with its democratic revolutions, economic disasters, food shortages, crashing GDP, and schisms between the sunni and the shiites. In the meantime Israel will have confirmed massive gas and oil rescouces in the Leviathan basin and on shore, together with technical progress in releasing oil from their oil shale rescources, being the third largest in the world and containing as much oil as Saudi Arabia. Even their electric car project “better place” is well named.

    Who then will Europe prostitute itself to, the Arabs or Israel? Will they still continue to align themselves with the self destructive Arab nations and continue their 2000 year hatred of the Jew? Or will they smell the Leviathan gas and finally wake up?

  5. “he PA had been getting high marks from world bodies for cleaning up their corruption which showed itself by the fact that world benevolence had for the first time been used for the good of the people”

    The PA is totally dependent on Israel. 70% of its internal revenue is from taxes. Taxes Israel collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority. Any unilateral moves could give Israel an excuse to stop collecting taxes, or collect the taxes and move it to the general Israeli budget.

    The Palestinians won’t survive 10 seconds without international welfare or some sort of baby-sitting. Remember, right after the Palestinians called for UN recognition Fayyad goes around asking for FIVE BILLION DOLLARS to make it happen.

    It just shows this is all a scam for more money.